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This research was funded by Grifols S.A.

Analysis of institutional authors

San-Roman-Montero, JAuthorCanora, JAuthorZapatero, AAuthor

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Article

Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case

Publicated to:Viruses-Basel. 13 (5): 917- - 2021-05-01 13(5), DOI: 10.3390/v13050917

Authors: Candel, Francisco Javier; Viayna, Elisabet; Callejo, Daniel; Ramos, Raul; San-Roman-Montero, Jesus; Barreiro, Pablo; Carretero, Maria del Mar; Kolipinski, Adam; Canora, Jesus; Zapatero, Antonio; Runken, Michael Chris

Affiliations

Council Publ Hlth, IML Hlth Inst, Prof Martin Lagos S-N, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author
Council Publ Hlth, Publ Hlth Lab, Calle Sierra de Alquife 8, Madrid 28053, Spain - Author
European Univ Madrid, Hosp La Paz, Dept Infect Dis, Internal Med,Council Publ Hlth, Paseo Castellana 261, Madrid 28046, Spain - Author
Grifols SA, Global Hlth Econ & Outcomes Res, Sci & Med Affairs, Ave Generalitat,152 SC3, Barcelona 08174, Spain - Author
Grifols SSNA, Global Hlth Econ & Outcomes Res, Sci & Med Affairs, 79 TW Alexander Dr Bldg 4101, Durham, NC 27713 USA - Author
Hlth Council, C ODonnell 55,4th Floor, Madrid 28009, Spain - Author
Hosp Clin San Carlos, IdISSC, Clin Microbiol & Infect Dis, Prof Martin Lagos S-N, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author
IQVIA Commercial Sp Zoo, Software Dev Stat Serv, Domaniewska 48, PL-02672 Warsaw, Poland - Author
IQVIA, Hlth Econ & Outcomes Res, Juan Esplandiu 11, Madrid 28007, Spain - Author
Rey Juan Carlos Univ, Dept Med Specialties & Publ Hlth, Ave Atenas S-N, Madrid 28922, Spain - Author
Univ Barcelona, Fac Econ & Business, Deptment Econometr Stat & Appl Econ, AQR IREA, Ave Diagonal 690-696, Barcelona 08034, Spain - Author
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Abstract

The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.

Keywords

ArticleClinical outcomeCommunicable disease controlComparative studyControlled studyCoronavirus disease 2019Cost benefit analysisCost-benefit analysisCovid-19Covid-19 testingDeathDiagnostic test accuracy studyDisease transmissionEconomic impactEconomic modelEconomicsEnvironmentEpidemiologyGenetic transcriptionGovernmentGross domestic productGross national productHealth care costHealth care costsHealth care policyHealth policyHerd immunityHospitalizationHumanHumansIncubation timeIntensive care unitLockdownMass screeningModels, economicModels, theoreticalMolecular diagnosisMolecular diagnostic techniquesMolecular testPandemicPandemicsPredictive valuePrevalencePrevention and controlPrimary medical careProceduresSars-cov-2SeirSensitivity analysisSpainTheoretical modelVirus transmissionWorkplace

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Viruses-Basel due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2021, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Infectious Diseases.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2025-06-30:

  • WoS: 3
  • Scopus: 3
  • Europe PMC: 3

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-06-30:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 34.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 34 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 3.35.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 5 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Oman; Poland; United States of America.